Time Frame of Decisionmaking

As envisioned and implemented so far, the enlargement process is long-term and has neither milestones nor deadlines for completion. It is an open process that in principle does not reject beforehand the membership of any European country (as stipulated in Article 10 of the Washington Treaty). Since early 1994, NATO has committed itself to a gradual and transparent process of enlargement, although the meaning of gradual and transparent is subject to interpretation. If we assume a no-surprises evolution, forecasts of enlargement in the 2000–10 decade can range from a slow pace of one to two new members to a stepped-up pace of two to three rounds of enlargement, each involving more than one new member. Either of these paths, as well as any number of in-between options, is plausible. But given the driving forces at play and the process’s evolution so far, the more likely pathways are in the former, slower category.